Are roof prices likely to come down soon?
Everyone asks this, and most of the answers online are guesses dressed up as forecasts. Here is the part that can be said honestly.
We will not forecast this, because nobody in roofing can do it credibly. What we can tell you is what the price is made of: asphalt tied to crude refining, freight, labor, and demand that spikes after every regional storm. What we can commit to is our published range today, $9,000 to $18,000 for asphalt replacement with most homes between $12,000 and $16,000. If your roof is failing, waiting is usually the more expensive bet, because deck damage is what turns a roof job into a bigger one.
01 /What a roof price is actually made of
Asphalt shingles are a petroleum product. The waterproofing asphalt in them arrives as a residual of crude oil refining, which is why shingle pricing tracks the energy market rather than the lumber market. Freight matters because shingles are heavy and shipped by the truckload. Labor is the other large share, and skilled roofing labor in southeast Michigan is not a commodity that gets cheaper on demand.
Decking is a separate market again. If your job needs sheathing replaced, that piece rides on structural panel pricing, which the NAHB framing lumber and panel tracking follows and which moves on its own schedule.
02 /The pattern that is not a forecast
One thing about this trade is reliably true without being a prediction: after a significant regional storm, local demand spikes, schedules fill, and out-of-town crews arrive. That is a demand event, not a materials event, and it is the mechanism most likely to affect what you personally pay in a given month here.
The August 2023 storms that produced FEMA DR-4757-MI, with Macomb County designated, are the local example of the kind of event that does it. Timing a roof around a hypothetical future price drop, while sitting in a county with a documented severe season, is a bet with two ways to lose.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes producer price data covering roofing materials, and the EIA covers the petroleum side. Those are the real series. Anyone quoting you a confident percentage for next year is not reading them.
03 /The question worth asking instead
Not "will roofs get cheaper," but "what does waiting cost on my roof specifically." Those are very different questions and only one of them is answerable.
If your roof has years of service left, waiting costs you nothing but the small risk of a storm, and we will tell you that during a free inspection rather than manufacture urgency. If it is actively failing, waiting lets water reach the deck, and replacing rotted sheathing is a line item that did not exist before. That is the mechanism by which a delayed roof gets more expensive regardless of what materials do.
Our numbers today are on the pricing sheet and in the cost calculator, and financing is available subject to approval if the timing is about cash flow rather than the roof.
The long version, tracing each input cost, is in why roofing prices keep rising.
The follow-up questions
Asphalt is a residual of crude refining, so there is a real link, but it is loose and lagged rather than immediate. Manufacturers set list prices on their own cycle, distributors and contractors buy at those prices, and labor and freight move independently. A drop at the pump does not translate into a drop in your quote on any reliable schedule.
Scheduling can be easier outside the fall rush, and easier scheduling is worth something. What you should not count on is a materially cheaper roof, and installing in cold weather carries its own tradeoff, since shingle sealant strips bond by warmth and may need hand-sealing. If your roof can wait, late spring through summer is the practical window.
Yes, and mainly for the inspection rather than the price. Knowing whether you have five years left or one changes the whole decision, and a documented set of photos now gives you a baseline if a storm shows up in the meantime. It costs nothing and there is no obligation.
- U.S. Energy Information Administration, oil and petroleum products explained: asphalt as a residual of crude refining. eia.gov
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, occupational wage and producer price data for roofing. bls.gov
- National Association of Home Builders, framing lumber and structural panel price tracking (Random Lengths weekly data). nahb.org: framing lumber prices
- FEMA, disaster declaration DR-4757-MI, Michigan severe storms, tornadoes, and flooding of August 24 to 26, 2023 (Macomb County designated; declared February 8, 2024). fema.gov/disaster/4757
- Macomb Roofing Pros published price table: the county-wide ranges this site commits to in writing. macombroofingpros.com/roofing/